Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
With former President Trump leading in the national polls and appearing to currently lead in all swing states, his pick of Senator Vance as his VP candidate could be extremely impactful for US energy and EWTC companies. Given that Senator Vance represents Ohio, a state with significant oil and gas production, it is natural to assume he will have an overstated role in energy policy in a potential second Trump administration. Although Senator Vance has only been active in national politics for two years since winning the Ohio Senate seat in 2022, he does have quite an extensive record of public statements, legislation and positions on energy that give us insight into where he stands on many of the issues that are of importance to our members.
During his campaign for Senate, Vance consistently supported hydraulic fracturing and called for its expanded use allowing production to fully tap the resources in the Utica shale underneath his home state. In an op-ed in the Marietta Times, Vance laid out why oil and gas production in Ohio should be increased to bolster US energy security but also called for the creation of new infrastructure such as pipelines and refineries. He called the permitting changes in the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 a good start but not sufficient, indicating he would be supportive of more significant permitting reform going forward. Later in the op-ed, Vance criticized the SEC ESG rule and new EPA emissions regulations. Vance has also criticized ESG-driven investing and called it a “massive racket” that would end up costing jobs in America.
Vance has previously voted against and criticized the Inflation Reduction Act but has said that he may support keeping some of the provisions of the law. However, he would like to see the majority of it repealed. Changes or a full repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act would likely only be possible should Republicans take the White House, win back control of the House and retain control of the Senate. Even this trifecta doesn’t necessarily guarantee that a full repeal will be possible, however, as there are many Republicans who support some provisions of the IRA. However, in that scenario, significant changes to the legislation appear almost certain. If there is a split decision of some sort in November it is likely that the IRA, or at least many elements of it, will survive.
Legislatively, with two years in the Senate, we have a few clues about policy positions that Senator Vance will likely continue in a potential administration. He is an original cosponsor of S. 319, The Power Act, introduced by Senator Lummis, which would order the President to seek Congressional approval before delaying leasing or permitting for oil, gas, and mining on federal lands. This legislation, if passed, would make it much more difficult for a future administration to slow-walk leasing in the way that the Biden administration has done in recent years. While Ohio does not have federal land for leasing, we can be confident that he will push for lease sales to continue both offshore and on. Senator Vance also introduced legislation last year, S. 2962 Drive American Act, which would repeal the federal tax credit for electric vehicles.
On international trade, Vance has been very supportive of tariffs and actions that are targeted at encouraging more domestic manufacturing. He has supported tariffs on Chinese goods such as solar panels, and it can be expected that he will play a significant role in crafting a potential Trump administration trade policy, especially whether or not they would move forward with the proposed 10% across-the-board tariff on all imports that have been mentioned during the campaign. Trade will perhaps be an area where Vance will play a larger role in crafting policies going forward so his statements will be watched closely as he now has a much larger constituency as a national candidate and will have to expand his messaging.
Overall, the pick of Vance for Vice President was not entirely unexpected; he had been considered the front-runner for many weeks. However, it still is quite impactful to give us insight into how the campaign and a potential administration will evolve, especially in terms of energy. Also of interest to us is who former President Trump did not pick. South Dakota Governor Doug Bergum had been very close with the campaign and was in the mix for Vice President until the end. It is very possible that in light of him being passed over, he could be considered a shoo-in for a potential Secretary of Interior or Energy role. This is something to watch closely, especially how big of a role he plays in the campaign going forward.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
