Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
Around two months out from the Presidential election, the race is very close. Despite Harris’s surge in the past two or three weeks, the race still appears to be quite close. The Real Clear Politics average has Harris up 1.9%, which is well within the margin of error. Additionally, according to the Real Clear Politics averages, while all of the battlegrounds are razon thin (within 2 points), Trump is up in 3, Harris in 3 and Nevada is a tie. What can we take from this? The race could really go either way. Absent some sort of October surprise, it appears we are headed into another very close election that is likely to go down to the wire.
This race’s closeness comes as we move towards the September 10th debate, which very well may decide this election. With polling so close, any slip-up by either candidate may be enough to move the bar just enough to flip things in the battlegrounds. We have yet to fully see the RFK dropout and endorsement really move the polls very much, so we will have to watch this closely over the next few weeks to see if there is a measurable effect.
We are hopeful that the debate will also allow us to get some more clarity from the candidates, especially Harris, on their overall energy policy. President Trump has indicated that he will essentially mirror his prior administration’s energy policy, at least in terms of domestic production. Harris, on the other hand, has shifted her energy positions quite a bit since running for President herself in 2019. In her recent CNN interview last week, Vice President Harris stated that she no longer supports the fracking ban she called for when running for President and that she expected to follow the Inflation Reduction Act framework as her overall energy policy in her next term.
What she did not say was what her policy would be towards oil and gas production in the United States beyond just not prohibiting fracking. The IRA contained the methane tax framework, which would certainly increase the cost of producing oil and gas in the United States. Many additional details on her overall energy policy remain still murky. Hopefully, during the debate, there will be one or two questions on energy, specifically oil and gas production in the United States.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
