Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
The 2026 election is quickly approaching, and the question on many of our minds is: what is the likely outcome, and what does it mean for energy policy in the coming year? A month out, we have a few key indicators about which way things may go. However, the important thing to remember is that things can change dramatically in politics on a dime… and never rely too heavily on polls. Polls are helpful to get a sense of momentum but are not very accurate at actually predicting specific election outcomes. They are good at giving us a sense of how voters are feeling at a particular given period of time but not as good at actually predicting how any election will ultimately work out.
With that limitation in mind… let’s take a quick look at what the polls are telling us. First, the U.S. House is where we are most likely to see change. House members are the most likely to face sudden change in midterms, and traditionally the party in power in the White House tends to lose seats in the House in the midterms. As it stands right now, most analysts are putting the odds of a House changeover at around 70-80% or more. One of the main reasons for this is the number of seats that Republicans are having to defend in this cycle. According to Cook Political Report, there are 21 toss-up seats, and 6 of them are held by Democrats and 15 by Republicans. Also relevant is that, in the “lean” to “solid” D rankings, there are 10 R seats included. So, that means that R’s are simply playing more defense than offense. Does that mean that the House is guaranteed to flip? Not at all, but it does mean it’s probably more likely than not. Economic issues appear to be at the top of mind for many voters, and with early voting already starting in many states, it is unlikely that we will see a fundamental shift on economic issues before election day. Inflation and energy prices are top of mind for voters in every state, and whether it’s fair or not, voters tend to blame the party in charge for these pocketbook issues.
The prospects for the Senate are a much closer call. As of now, the Senate is closer to a coin flip with perhaps a slight (ever so slight) lean towards the Democrats. Again, it all comes down to math. In the Senate, there are 35 seats up for re-election this cycle and currently 7 are ranked as “toss-ups” by Cook. Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas are part of that group. In order to take control of the Senate, D’s must hold all of their current seats and take 4 from currently held Republican seats. Of those “toss-ups,” only Michigan is currently held by a Democrat. So, assuming D’s hold Michigan, they need to grab at least 4 of the toss-ups; however, NC is likely a loss for the R’s, so that number turns to 3. TX, AK, OH, and ME are all incredibly close within the margin of error. What does this all mean? Well, it means that the Senate may be quite close and come down to one or two seats. The Senate could easily go either way; it really just depends on how the night goes and how spot-on some of these polls have been. A compelling case could be made that either party will take control of the Senate at this point.
What does this all mean for us? Whatever happens, there are positives and negatives likely for energy. The first thing to remember is that in the scenario where the House and/or Senate flip, there are some advantages to divided government. In a divided government scenario, all policy essentially stays locked in where it is. Since the Administration has locked in favorable lease sales for both offshore and onshore, that policy will remain as is. From the regulatory side, things will also continue much as they have been. The big question for us is what happens with permitting reform and tariff policy. On permitting reform, a Senate package was released right before break and appears to have strong bipartisan support. The best-case scenario is that this package passes quickly through the Senate in lame duck and then is signed into law before the new Congress even is sworn in. If the election is close and margins small, I think there is a good chance this does pass in the lame duck. Where things get a bit murkier is if it is a wave election. In that instance, there may be a movement among rank-and-file Democrats to go back to the drawing board and attempt to renegotiate the package given their stronger negotiating position. Greater protections for renewable energy projects could become a sticking point, as well as data center-related provisions. In the scenario where provisions start getting renegotiated, it could take us back to square one.
The tariff issue is also quite interesting to game out. A few things that have been clear during this election cycle. The first is that many Republicans in close elections have not been running on the President’s tariff policy. In fact, many have been running away from it. On the Democrat side, candidates have consistently been messaging that tariffs are a big part of inflation and the affordability issue. With that being said, there may be bipartisan momentum to try and put pressure on the White House after the election to scale back some of the tariffs. That is a big “may”, and it will certainly depend on the margins and how the balance of power all works out, but it is something that EWTC will certainly work hard on in the coming weeks and months during conversations with leaders on both sides of the aisle.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
