Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
This week, President Trump travels to China for a high-level summit with President Xi Jinping, which was scheduled for last month but rescheduled due to the Iran conflict. The stakes of this meeting could not be higher, and there could be some fairly significant implications for energy. The two are expected to discuss the Iran conflict, with President Jinping expected to push for a resolution as soon as possible. In 2025, China imported half of its crude oil and almost 1/3 of its LNG from the Middle East, which has been significantly disrupted since the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Additionally, AI technology is expected to be a major focus of discussions with China, as China seeks permission to purchase high-performance chips produced by Nvidia and other US chipmakers without export controls. China may also agree to purchase more Boeing planes as part of larger trade discussions.
As part of these larger trade discussions, it is also likely that the two will consider options for the resumption of Chinese imports of US energy. Reciprocal tariffs imposed in the back-and-forth US/China trade war have halted most Chinese imports of US oil and LNG, which, before the halt, were worth $8.4 billion. LNG could also be significant. In 2021, LNG trade between the US and China was significant, reaching as high as 8.98 million tons, with the US, for a time, being China’s third-largest LNG trading partner behind Qatar. However, by 2025, this number had dropped to 26,000 tons after China imposed a 25% tariff on US LNG. The opportunity to increase these numbers still exists, as many analysts believe US LNG could be cheaper than Asian spot cargoes if Beijing removed the 25% tariff.
The story regarding crude oil exports is similar. Chinese imports of US crude peaked at 395,000 barrels per day in 2020, but they have not imported any oil since May 2025, after imposing a 20% tariff on US imports, replacing them with additional shipments from Canada and Brazil.
Given the potential here, we can expect energy to be a focus for both sides to use as a bargaining chip in what will be a contentious trade debate.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
