Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
Presidential Race Tightens Up
What a difference two weeks makes. With the first round of polls coming in since Vice President Harris has nearly certainly solidified her grasp of the Democratic nomination, all the signs are pointing in the same direction. The Presidential race has tightened… and it appears to be back to a coin flip at this point. Most national polls have it as a tie or within one point. A few polls even have Harris up a point or two. Perhaps more important than the national polls is the fact that the swing states have also tightened up. Pennsylvania, a state that Trump appeared to be running away with just two weeks ago, is now tied.
What does this all mean for us? Well, first, we need to keep everything in context; the two candidates have yet to even directly debate each other, so there is still a lot of time for this to shake out. If recent political history is our guide, things can change very quickly. Of particular note to us is how fracing has worked its way back to the national debate on energy policy. During her original run for President in the Democratic primary in 2020, Harris said on the record that she supported a comprehensive ban on fracing. At the time, she was perhaps the farthest left among the primary contenders on energy issues; however, President Biden also made comments indicating he would support such a ban. However, flash forward to January 2020, Biden won the election and tapped Harris as his VP, and they both repudiated their prior position to ban fracing and took the slightly less aggressive position.
Given the Vice President’s prior position on the practice, Republicans quickly went on the attack as soon as she was announced as the presumptive candidate. The Harris campaign found themselves boxed in a corner and would have a hard time in a state like Pennsylvania with such a position. To combat this narrative, the campaign released a statement over the weekend stating she no longer supported a ban on fracing. While criticisms are still coming from many, her move to position away from a total ban is notable. Still, she did not issue any type of statement of support for US natural gas generally, and her positions on many related issues are unclear. It will be critical for industry and the large energy workforce in states like Pennsylvania to keep the pressure on her campaign to clarify her positions on many energy issues.
Ultimately, I suspect that her Vice President choice will determine many of the energy positions of the Harris campaign. Ben Shapiro, the current governor of Pennsylvania, appears to be in the top two contenders for the decision. He is a fairly popular Governor who won the 50/50 state by 15 points. Important for us, he has attempted to walk the middle on energy issues and does not support a ban on fracing. If he is chosen, hopefully, he will take the lead on many energy issues and pull Harris away from some of her more extreme positions against the industry. We should know her decision in the next week or so.
Senate Energy marks up Permitting Bill
On Wednesday, the Senate Energy committee passed the permitting legislation by a vote of 15-4. This strong bipartisan vote signals that the bill is poised to move to the Senate floor next, where it faces an uncertain future. The bill faces criticisms on both the left and the right. Many on the left are uncomfortable with the fact that it ends the Biden Administration’s “pause” on LNG permitting, and some on the right feel that a stronger package could be passed after the election when Republicans could be in control of both chambers and potentially the Presidency.
We can expect a continued drumbeat in support of the bill between now and the election. After November, Congress will come back into session for the lame duck session, and this is the likely opportunity for potential passage. The two most likely vehicles are the National Defense Authorization Act and the end-of-year spending package. Both of these vehicles will have to pass before the end of the year. Also, key to this strategy is they will need to clear the House as well where the package may face some difficulties. Key for this association is to keep pushing members on both sides of the aisle that permitting reform is critical for American energy security and that improvements cannot wait until next year when the makeup of Congress is unknown. A deal now is better than more uncertainty next year.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
