Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
With less than 40 days to go until election day, the presidential, Senate, and House races all appear to be very close, with no clear outcome that can be accurately predicted at this time. With the media super focused on making headlines, it is very easy to get distracted by one particular poll here or there and think that it is showing a trend. It is important to not fall for that mirage…. and step back and take an objective look at the data we have. On top of that, polls are simply a snapshot of how a small subset of people are feeling at any particular time, they are fairly good at showing trends but fairly bad at predicting actual election outcomes.
What is the data showing us now? And what does this mean for US energy policy next year? Well, first, let’s look at the biggest prize, the US Presidential race. Using the Real Clear Politics polling average, what we know is that Harris currently has about a 2.3 national polling average. This has remained fairly consistent since the last Presidential debate keeping her with a 2-4 percent national polling lead. Is this significant? Not really. It shows she proved herself at the debate and perhaps turned over a few undecides, but a 2% national polling average is still within the margin of error, and as we all know, the national vote total matters only for bragging rights.
The only thing that really matters is the swing states, as they will determine the candidate that crosses 270 in the electoral college threshold and becomes President. The swing states look much closer. According to the Real Clear Politics Battleground average in the swing states (Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia), Trump currently holds a .2% advantage. Is that significant? No, not at all; it means that this is razor-thin. If this scenario holds, the election will be determined by however these swing states break down, which appears to be a coin flip. Do we see any trends? Well, Trump has a 2.2% lead in Arizona, which appears to be growing slightly, but Harris has pulled up a 1.8% lead in Michigan, so those cancel each other out. Pennsylvania and Georgia still look neck and neck. There are a few curveballs here to consider as well. There was a last-minute effort to change the Nebraska allocation of electoral votes that would give all 3 to the state winner as opposed to splitting out Omaha metro as its own vote, but it appears that effort may fail. The fact that the one electoral vote in Omaha even matters this year shows how close this ultimately may be, and both campaigns realize that.
Let’s turn our sights to the Senate race as well, considering that this will have a significant impact on energy policy regardless of what happens in the President. In the scenario where Harris wins, GOP control of the Senate will be absolutely critical to serve as a counterweight and slow or stop many negative policies that could come out of that administration in the early days. The good news here is that although the outcome is far from certain, it does still appear that the GOP will hold a slight majority in the Senate. Real Clear Politics currently has Democrats with 44 likely seats, Republicans with 50 and 6 toss-ups. Democrats would have to run the table and grab all six toss-ups and the Presidency to obtain a majority, and that appears less likely. Much attention has been paid to one recent poll that shows Allred up 1 point on Cruz, but I think it’s way too early to put too much credibility in one poll. The race is certainly close. However, Cruz has consistently shown a 3-4 point advantage, and we will have to wait for more polling to see where this really is. Those two candidates will debate in Dallas on October 15th. However, it is important to watch closely because if Allred could actually pull off the upset here, it could throw the Senate map into jeopardy and have major implications for US energy policy.
As for the House, Real Clear Politics has the generic congressional ballot at Democrats plus 2%. Is this significant? Not really; the House also appears to be a coin flip at this point. It is close enough that likely the Presidential winner will pull the House with them. Unlike the Senate, many voters tend to pay less attention to the House races, so the close races will be decided by Presidential turnout and down-ballot voting.
With less than 40 days left, we have learned a little more about the potential Harris energy policies. Trump has consistently reiterated that his policies would look much like his prior term, but we still have not had an opportunity to get more detail from the Harris side. Despite her repeated contention that she no longer supports a “fracking ban,” she has not been questioned on whether she would move forward with support for LNG export permits and if she supports the Biden Administration’s slowdown on permitting for federal lands and waters. Lost in the first debate was the distinction that only 24% of US production occurs on federal lands, so the President does not have the authority to “ban fracking” in the other 76% of areas where production occurs. So far, Harris has been limiting her exposure to live interviews, and it appears the strategy on energy is going to remain quiet and just reiterate the no fracking ban position. The candidates cannot agree on terms for a second debate, so this appears unlikely. There is, however, a Vice Presidential Debate scheduled for Tuesday of next week, and we can expect these candidates to get some additional questions on energy policy. This may be our last real chance before the election.
NMFS Files Motions to Amend Judgement in Gulf of Mexico BiOp Decision
In an issue being closely watched by EWTC, legal filings continue in response to the US District Court ruling that the current GOM BiOp will be invalidated starting on December 20, 2024. On September 11, 2024, GOM Industry Intervenors filed an appeal to this decision. Shortly after, on September 16, 2024, NMFS filed a motion to amend or alter the judgment, which includes declarations by NMFS, BSEE, and BOEM asking for the vacatur of the 2020 BiOp to be delayed until May 2025. This is very good news for us as it shows that both industry and the relevant federal agencies agree that there should not be a gap and that any gap will have disastrous consequences for operations in the Gulf. NMFS has requested that the trial court rule by October 21 on this motion to delay.
What comes next? Well, we will have to wait and see the trial court’s action in October. Should this motion fail, EWTC is working on a legislative backstop in Congress that could also fix the problem. EWTC believes it is important to work on both solutions at the same time, given the uncertainty surrounding how the court’s actions will play out and the serious consequences resulting from the outcome.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
