Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
With less than a week to go until the 2024 election, the race remains incredibly close. With early voting already well underway in most states, the polls from this point become less and less relevant, with turnout now being the deciding factor. An election this close can undoubtedly lead to some anxiety as we try to determine how things will play out and what it means for our businesses and American energy policy. According to the Real Clear Politics national average, which takes into account multiple polls from across the country over the past two weeks, the race is currently an ever so slight lean toward Trump, giving him a .1% lead. This is obviously incredibly close and reflects a trend we have been seeing over the past two weeks with the national polls tightening up.
However, the national average is really only relevant for showing trends; the election will be decided in the electoral college and among the 6-7 swing states. According to Real Clear Politics, the swing state averages also have Trump with a lead; in fact, they have him leading in all seven swing states. However, all the margins are under 1%, except for Georgia at 2.3% and Nevada at 1.5%.
When the margins are this tight, the races in these swing states will ultimately be decided by turnout. Polls are limited by the fact that they really only look at “likely voters,” and, at times, likely voters don’t vote, or unlikely voters do indeed end up voting. When that happens, the models don’t keep up. There is only so much an algorithm can do to expect the unexpected.
With this in mind, project 538 is a fairly decent algorithm that uses polling data and early voting numbers to run simulations before an election. It is by no means a perfect tool, but it helps identify trends in the few weeks leading up to the final stretch. This algorithm currently thinks there is a 54% chance of a Trump win and a 46% chance of a Harris win. These numbers seem about on par where the race feels like it has shifted in the past few days and is probably about a fair prediction we have at this point.
The Senate remains very likely to switch to Republican hands even if something unlikely happens, like a Cruz loss in Texas. The number of seats Democrats are defending is simply too many unless the polling is way off. We can be fairly certain of this outcome. This is important as a Republican Senate would serve as an important check on a potential Harris Presidency in terms of energy policy. The House remains very close, with a number of seats in NY and California up for grabs, and will determine who has the majority in the House.
Typically, in a Presidential election year, with the turnout as high as we can expect this time around, the House will likely follow the Presidential election party’s winner. So, as we head into the final stretch, given what we know now, the most likely scenario (slightly) is a Republicans winning three out of three, with very close margins. A second scenario is a Harris win in conjunction with a Republican Senate and a Democratic House again, with very close margins.
We will have a full election breakdown after the results are known next week, detailing what they mean for EWTC and our members and the expected policy outcomes for our sector.
Whatever happens, one thing we can be certain of is that there will be opportunities and challenges either way, and our sector will continue to do what it has always done: produce the energy the country and the world need to sustain our economy and way of life.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
