Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
After a long 2024 election cycle is coming to a close, we now have a much clearer sense of what the next 2-4 years will look like for our sector and energy policy in the United States. First and most importantly, President Trump will return to the White House with a fairly strong mandate from the American people. He improved his electoral position in nearly every swing state. When writing this column, he holds an almost 5 million vote lead in the popular vote, which will likely continue to rise as additional votes tabulate. The polls that showed a much closer race were once again mostly wrong and missed the swelling of Trump support in the final days. The former President increased his vote totals in nearly every demographic, which is more than what he showed in 2020.
In addition to Republicans securing the Presidency, as expected, the Senate will flip to Republicans as well. Republicans are projected to secure at least 52 seats in the Senate, giving them a majority. Republicans so far have flipped seats in West Virginia, Ohio, and Montana, with five still not yet called. Regardless of what happens with the remaining uncalled seats, the majority will still be shy of the 60-vote mandate to pass legislation without bipartisan support; however, it will ensure that President-Elect Trump will likely be able to get essentially the cabinet he desires. Additionally, some legislation will be able to be passed using the budget reconciliation process under the 60-vote threshold, depending on the rules of the new Senate body. Senate Republicans will soon elect new leadership after Mitch McConnell’s retirement; the leading candidates are currently Senator Cornyn (TX) and Senator John Thune (SD). Both candidates come from energy-producing states, support our industry, and are well-respected among their colleagues. Either choice would be beneficial to EWTC policy goals in that body.
In the House, things are a bit tighter…. but we are starting to get a sense that Republicans may maintain a slight majority in that chamber as well. Counting is still ongoing, but currently, four seats have moved from D to R (NC-6, NC-13, NC-14, and MI-7), and three seats have moved from R to D (AL-2, NY-19, and NY-22). There are currently 23 uncalled races in which Democrats lead and 19 Republicans currently lead. So, if all of those leads hold up, the House would actually look exactly how it looks now, which is 221 Republicans and 214 Democrats. That is a tight majority that will still need to act in a bipartisan fashion to pass significant legislation; however, even a tight majority will significantly help President-Elect Trump and his ability to pass his agenda. However, given the close nature of these remaining races, we will likely not know the final outcome for another week or so.
So, what does this all mean for us? With the election now behind us, it’s time to begin planning out what the policy changes will be, given the likely new makeup and how that will affect our sector. The most significant and immediate change we will see in January is a reversal in many of the Biden era policies that hindered and slowed down access to energy production in the US. I expect the LNG pause to end within the incoming administration’s first few days or weeks. Additionally, I expect the new Department of Interior to work to expedite additional oil and gas lease sales both offshore and onshore; the lease sales held during the Biden Administration were the lowest ever for the program. I also expect some alterations to the methane rule and the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the extent of these changes is currently unclear; these will be issues we will work closely on with the new administration going forward. Also to watch is that President-elect Trump has discussed adding a significant new level of tariffs on imported goods, which could if done as proposed, increase the likelihood of retaliatory tariffs on energy and manufactured goods leaving the US, so we will need to work closely with the incoming administration to ensure that these tariffs are enacted in a way to minimize detrimental consequences for our sector.
In terms of legislation, EWTC has long advocated for a robust permitting reform package to expedite permitting for energy infrastructure in this country. Permitting delays are currently making it nearly impossible to meet energy demand projections. Given the likely makeup of the House and Senate, it is now extremely likely that House and Senate Republicans will hold off on supporting a package in the lame duck and will instead wait until next year to work to pass a large package, given that they may control majorities in both Houses. It is vital that this package include all of the provisions that will be impactful for our sector, so there will be lots of work to do early in the next year to achieve this with the new Congress. On the energy front, we can expect permitting reform to be a major focus right off the bat in the new Congress. Many provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expire in 2025 as well, so the new Congress will have to focus on tax policy next year. It will be vital to work with the new Congress on these changes.
Incredibly important to the success of much of this agenda will be how the relevant agencies to our sector are populated with leadership. Candidates for key positions like Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Interior, Secretary of Commerce, and Secretary of State will soon start to be explored by the transition team. EWTC will follow these developments closely and explore the impacts on our sector as we move forward. The EWTC fly-in will be held on February 25-27 and will be vital as it will give our members an opportunity to meet with all three branches of Government, two of which will be entirely new leadership with the House still up in the air.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
