Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
So… you are telling me there is a chance? It seems like we have been down this road so many times, it’s almost hard to believe that it could be real this time. While its fate is far from certain at this point, the Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026 (introduced by Senators Capito, Lee, Whithouse and Heinrich) is perhaps closer to passage than any other permitting reform bill has ever been. The legislation is set for a cloture vote in the Senate on November 9 right after the election. Notably, all the Senators who introduced the package have spent their time this October pushing the bill and remaining confident about its eventual passage next month.
While much of the bill will be relevant to EWTC members, perhaps the most relevant will be the significant changes to the permitting process for pipeline projects in the U.S. In the coming years, the U.S. will see significant energy demand increases, and much of this energy demand will be filled by gas. To support this demand, a significant pipeline buildout in the U.S. will be necessary, and the current project timelines simply will not cut it. In this light, the legislation takes a number of major steps towards speeding up the process:
NEPA– Under current law, litigants have a six-year window to sue, and courts can void permits or halt construction on the entire project. Under this legislation, that window closes to 150 days, and courts can only send reviews back to agencies while the projects proceed.
Clean Water Act Section 401– Under current law, states can deny certifications on broad overall project effects. Under this legislation, review is limited specifically to water quality with a nine-month cap.
Permit certainty– Under current law, agencies can revoke issued permits and damages are generally unavailable. Under this legislation, revocations are not permissible outside a few narrow circumstances, and sponsors can recover 25% to 50% of costs incurred.
Existing Right-of-Way- Under current law, any pipeline modifications can trigger a full NEPA review. With the changes from the proposed bill, pipeline work within existing rights-of-way is excluded.
Decision Deadlines– Under current law, there is no deadline for final decisions after environmental review; however, with the proposed law, there must be a record of decisions within 45 days and remaining federal permits within 90 to 120 days.
All of these potential changes will significantly change the permitting system in the United States and should be very beneficial to the overall US energy system. So, the first question you are probably asking yourself is ok, is this really the time this passes? After all, we have been going back and forth with multiple versions of permitting reform since 2022. The answer: not what anybody wants to hear… it depends. Current thinking is that if Republicans have an average to good election night, then this will likely pass during lame duck. At this point, an average or good election night would mean a close or limited-margin House falling into Democratic control and a Senate that remains in Republican control. In this scenario, the new House majority will be keen to get to work on their priorities and will be unlikely to have the numbers or the interest to try and stop permitting reform or work on changes. This will be compounded by the fact that energy prices are still expected to be high, and this potential new House majority will be charged to deal with the affordability issue that permitting will certainly go a long way to help. Here, I would expect a quick lame duck vote, perhaps even a suspension vote in the House.
But what happens if Republicans have a bad night? Large loss margins in the House and potentially a Senate flip? That is where things get interesting. While it is still very possible that a large enough coalition of members may still exist to vote this out during lame duck, it is also possible that things could get fouled up in this scenario. Perhaps a group of rank-and-file Democrats could argue that now that they have a majority in Congress, they need to renegotiate and get stronger language in the bill to add stronger protections for renewable energy projects. Will Democrat leadership be sympathetic to these arguments and hold up passage? Perhaps they will; however, it’s important to remember that the bill only needs a handful of Democrats to support it in the Senate, assuming all Republicans are yes votes. In the House, if all Republicans are present and voting, an even smaller number of Democrats (or even none) will likely be necessary. So, even in the worst- case election scenario for Republicans, there still is a chance to get this through; it will likely take some last-minute vote wrangling, however. EWTC plans to work both sides of the aisle in the coming weeks to ensure that this gets over the finish line, and we will keep members apprised of all developments.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
