Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
What a difference a few weeks makes. The Presidential race is still incredibly close. However, it does appear that, at least according to recent polling, Vice President Harris has a very slight lead over former President Trump. However, despite this shift, it is still important to remember that Harris has only officially been the democratic candidate for a little over three weeks and has yet to have a full interview without a teleprompter. There has also not yet been a direct debate with Trump, which is not expected to occur until September. Things could certainly change between now and the first votes to actually be cast in the race.
That said, according to the Real Clear Politics polling average, Harris now has a .5% advantage over Trump, which is well within the margin of error. This average looks at a combination of various polls from the past few weeks. Some recent national polls have shown that Harris had a more sizable lead of 4-5% points. Still, it will take another week or two to determine whether those are outliers or more statistically significant. However, perhaps more importantly, the swing states also appear to have tightened in the past two weeks. In a race that will almost certainly be decided by just a few electoral votes, these numbers are much more important. Harris now holds a 2.4% lead in Michigan and a .8% lead in Wisconsin. Georgia now appears to be a dead heat. This is in sharp contrast to just two weeks ago when Trump appeared to be pulling away in Georgia and had a lead in every other swing state.
What does this all mean? Honestly, it is too early to tell if this is just a short-lived bump or something more significant; we will probably need to give the polling another few weeks to settle down and become a bit more reliable to really be able to determine where this is headed. It does appear that the group of undecided voters has gotten significantly smaller, so it may be safe to assume that the current race’s closeness may continue until election night.
Also of interest to us is Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate. Many had speculated that Harris would pick Governor Shapiro, who has been fairly mainstream on some energy issues, to cater to undecided and more independent voters in the middle. However, it turns out the campaign ultimately decided to go with a more traditional progressive pick with Governor Walz. Being from Wisconsin and not a leading energy state like Pennsylvania or Ohio, our record of Governor Walz is more limited than we would have for somebody like Shapiro. That being said, as a Governor and a member of the House for many years, we do know enough to say that he is far to the left on energy issues and will certainly not be pulling the overall campaign more to the middle. For example, Governor Walz signed a bill that would force utilities to provide 100% “carbon-free” power by 2040. In 2021, Walz signed an executive order that essentially adopted California’s 2012 vehicle emissions standards, bringing his state well over the national limits. The Governor also has long argued for greater EV adaptation despite being from a state heavily reliant on agriculture and being quite spread out with many rural areas. Despite this EO and additional subsidies provided in Minnesota for the adaptation of electric vehicles, the state’s EV adoption rate is still less than 1%.
On the flip side, Governor Walz did not oppose the replacement of the Line 3 oil pipeline from Edmonton, Alberta, to Superior, Wisconsin, which included a large portion that passed through Minnesota. Since its replacement work was finished, the line has been operating at a near capacity of 760,000 barrels a day. Many environmental groups had urged Governor Walz to oppose the replacement work on the pipeline.
What can we draw from all of this? The pick of Walz is likely a sign that the Harris administration will tow the traditional democratic line on energy issues and not get pulled too much to the middle. However, a closer look at statements by Harris in response to energy questions at the upcoming debate will likely give us much greater insight into where this Administration would actually be should they be elected. We just have not had enough opportunities to talk about direct policy issues yet, given the rapidly changing dynamics of this race.
Ukraine Launches Incursion into Russia, European Gas Prices Rise
Natural gas prices in Europe hit their highest level of the year this week following Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russian territory. Seven days ago, a Ukrainian force of around 1000 men entered the Kursk region of Russia and began taking over strategic locations and even raised the Ukrainian flag at a few points. Part of the area seized contains a gas metering station in the Russian town of Sudzha, where Russian gas flows to Europe through Ukraine. Some 120,000 Russian nationals have been forced to evacuate the region, and many Russian forces in the area have been captured or killed.
The long-term ability of Ukraine to hold this Russian territory appears questionable; however, after seven days, much of the region appears to remain under Ukrainian control, shocking military analysts. The strategic value of the incursion is perhaps more psychological than military once it is all said and done. For the Ukrainians to show that they can take and hold territory inside Russia is a tremendous black-eye to Putin and could end up threatening his grip on power in Russia. It may also be used as a negotiating tool by Ukraine if they are able to hold the territory for some time if negotiations to bring the conflict to some sort of conclusion this winter come to fruition as the summer fighting season begins to close. It also shows the Russian public that despite statements to the contrary, Ukraine does not appear close to defeat despite some recent advances by the Russians pushing a bit farther into Ukraine. We can likely expect disruptions to the worldwide energy markets to continue for some time. We may also see some sort of massive retaliation against Ukraine by Russia in an attempt to save face, which could further destabilize the region and energy prices.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
