Analysis by Energy Workforce President Tim Tarpley
Senate negotiators said Monday that they had reached a bipartisan “deal” on the long-awaited permitting reform package. As a refresher, the House already passed its package (SPEED Act) in December 2025. Negotiations stalled in the Senate for months for several reasons, including disputes over the Trump Administration’s permitting of renewable energy projects. While some Democrats still appear hesitant on this point, the White House has signaled it is now willing to move forward on permitting and approving previously approved renewable energy projects to get the deal done. These assurances could be enough to push this over the finish line.
How real is all of this? In some ways it feels like Groundhog Day as we have seemingly been “close to a deal” for months, even years. Adding to the uncertainty, the backers are using lots of coded words and statements that sound like they are hedging their bets. Lead Democratic negotiators Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) had been withholding their endorsements on the text of a final deal until they see “the last five yards.” On Monday, staff for the Senators, speaking off the record, said such a deal has been reached. On the Republican side, Sen. Shelley Capito (R-WV), chairwoman of EPW, said publicly that “the goal” is to release details of the agreement before the end of the week. A staff briefing on Friday on the Hill echoed these sentiments: a deal had been reached, and it was time to move ahead to next steps.
So what really are the prospects, you may ask? When could we see a vote? Well… that is where things get much more murky. Certainly, without some sort of “deal” reached this week, it seemed almost a sure thing that there would be no permitting reform in 2026, so there was tremendous pressure on the negotiating team to get something out. But getting a deal agreed to by the negotiators is one thing; selling it to the rank-and-file caucus is another. Significant concerns remain on the Democratic side. Some may question whether the permitting-certainty language is strong enough to truly protect renewable projects; others may question whether the NEPA reforms go too far. It’s also important to remember that most Democratic Senators have not even seen the draft bill text; we won’t fully understand what the support for this is until they have had time to review it. Then, there is what has suddenly become the elephant in every room: data centers. There are concerns on both sides of the aisle that a permitting reform bill could be perceived by the voting public as being supportive of further data center development, which is polling very poorly in many regions on both sides of the aisle.
For all of these reasons… and given that the House is already in recess and the Senate is scheduled to break at the end of this week… it is highly unlikely the package could be voted on before recess. So where does that leave us? Well, it leaves us to wait and see how the elections play out and where the dust settles for potential action in lame duck. How likely is that? Well, if the polls are right (they often are not), Democrats have a good chance of taking back both the House and the Senate. How big their margins are will matter, but if the margins are small, there may be a slight opening to pass this deal. The new majority may want to clear the deck on appropriations and not have permitting reform to deal with in the new Congress. However, if the margins are big in the Democrats’ favor, we may see a push from the rank and file on their side to renegotiate the deal in a way more favorable to them. If that happens, all bets are off, and we will likely see Republicans walk away, leading to a start from scratch in 2027 in the new Congress. In that scenario, we can expect 2027 to be an incredibly partisan environment, with bipartisan deals even harder than they are now. If Republicans keep the Senate but lose the House (the most likely scenario until a week ago) there also may be a chance to get something done in the lame duck. It could even be possible to pass the package through the House with just a few D’s supporting. It’s obviously still too early to know how this will play out, but regardless of which scenario becomes reality, one thing is for sure: EWTC will have to engage heavily, along with our partners, after the midterms to push this over the finish line and avoid a pushback to 2027.
Tim Tarpley, Energy Workforce President, analyzes federal policy for the Energy Workforce & Technology Council. Click here to subscribe to the Energy Workforce newsletter, which highlights sector-specific issues, best practices, activities and more.
